Chris Mance II - Mental Skills Coach

Practically embedded in the human DNA is a tendency to make judgments based on outcomes. When our distant ancestors roamed the wild, the consequences of their actions often held life-or-death significance. A successful hunt could mean nourishment for days, while a failed attempt could lead to hunger and vulnerability. In such an environment, the ability to quickly assess outcomes and associate them with actions was crucial for adapting and ensuring survival.

This ancient wiring of our brains has persisted over millennia, shaping our cognitive processes, and influencing how we perceive success and failure. However, while this tendency might have been advantageous in the primordial landscape, it’s important to recognize that the modern world presents us with a vastly different set of challenges and complexities.

In our modern lives, this evolutionary trait manifests in various ways. Winning a game, securing a promotion, or achieving a personal goal can lead us to believe that our strategies and efforts were flawless. However, this tendency to evaluate the quality of our decisions solely based on outcomes can be detrimental, leading to what psychologists call ‘outcome bias.’ In this article, we will delve into the concept of outcome bias, its implications, and how overcoming it can lead to more effective decision-making and personal growth.

The Illusion of Outcome Validation

Imagine a scenario where you’ve trained diligently for a high-stakes game or match. Your hard work pays off, and you emerge victorious. The natural inclination is to credit your success solely to your preparation process. However, this is where outcome bias sneaks in. Relying solely on the outcome to validate your efforts can be misleading, as success is not always a direct reflection of the quality of your process.

Understanding Outcome Bias

Outcome bias is the tendency to judge the quality of a decision or process based solely on its outcome. In essence, it involves giving undue importance to the result, even if the decisions or steps taken were flawed or suboptimal. This bias often prevents us from critically analyzing our actions and can lead to overconfidence, complacency, and missed opportunities for improvement.

Examples of Outcome Bias in Various Athletes:

• Soccer: A soccer player might conclude that their dribbling practice was impeccable because they scored a goal during a match, even if their overall gameplay lacked strategic cohesion.
• Tennis: After winning a match, a tennis player might attribute their success solely to their powerful serves, overlooking the need to improve their overall court positioning and shot variety.
• Basketball: An athlete in basketball might consider their individual point contribution as evidence of flawless gameplay, failing to recognize the importance of team coordination and defensive strategies in securing the win.
• Track: A track sprinter might attribute their victory to natural speed alone, neglecting the potential to fine-tune their start technique and running form.
• Swimming: A swimmer who wins a race may assume their stroke technique is impeccable, bypassing the opportunity to refine their turns and underwater streamline.
• Football: A wide receiver might believe their personal touchdown count proves their superiority, disregarding the need to improve their route running skills on short passes and blocking for others for overall team success.
• Lacrosse: A lacrosse player’s focus on their scoring record might lead them to overlook the significance of defensive positioning and effective passing in influencing the game’s outcome.
• Baseball: A baseball player who consistently hits home runs could overlook the importance of refining their base-running and outfield catching abilities.
• Wrestling: A wrestler who frequently wins matches by pin might attribute their success solely to physical strength, downplaying the importance of mastering various defensive techniques and strategies to win close matches.

In each of these examples, the outcome bias blinds athletes to the nuances and aspects of their performance that require refinement, ultimately hindering their potential for growth and improvement.

Stoicism and the Virtue of Process-Centric Thinking

The Stoic philosophy, celebrated for its emphasis on self-awareness and resilience, offers profound guidance in transcending outcome bias. Stoics, striving for inner tranquility and personal excellence, ground themselves in the realization that they wield control only over their attitudes, beliefs, and choices, nothing else. This philosophy encourages a clear separation between factors within one’s sphere of influence and those beyond, paving the way for a process-centric perspective.

Integrating this philosophy into our actions and decisions can foster a remarkable shift, steering our focus from results to the intricate processes that underpin success. For example:

1. Training Dedication: A Stoic athlete immerses themselves in the training journey, valuing consistent effort, technical refinement, and pushing boundaries. By prioritizing the journey over immediate outcomes, they bolster personal growth and mastery.
2. Resilience in Defeat: Instead of fixating on losses, a Stoic competitor views setbacks as opportunities for learning and growth. They focus on dissecting their performance, identifying areas for improvement, and embodying resilience in the face of adversity.
3. Mindful Progress Tracking: A Stoic athlete tracks progress meticulously, recognizing that each small step contributes to eventual success. This approach discourages undue fixation on ultimate goals and encourages an appreciation of incremental improvements.
4. Balancing Mental Well-being: Stoicism guides athletes to nurture their mental health as part of their growth process. By acknowledging their reactions to challenges and setbacks, they can practice emotional resilience and maintain a balanced mindset.
5. Embracing Challenges: Athletes influenced by Stoic principles view challenges as opportunities to push boundaries. They embrace discomfort, acknowledging that stepping out of their comfort zone is essential for evolution and self-discovery.

Cultivating a Process-Oriented Mindset

To cultivate this Stoic, process-oriented mindset, start by adopting a decision-making process that includes three pillars: thoughtfulness, effort, and strategy.

• Thoughtfulness prompts deep reflection on each step taken, bringing to light subtle insights that might remain hidden under a cursory glance. For instance, an athlete might realize that a slight adjustment in their stance significantly improved their performance, a detail they initially overlooked.
• Effort signifies a dedicated commitment to the work of refining skills with determination. This could manifest as an athlete dedicating extra hours to perfecting their technique, demonstrating a relentless pursuit of excellence.
• Strategy is built on a clear purpose, meticulous planning, and adaptable execution. For example, a high school wrestler might strategically adjust their practice habits to focus more on a specific takedown that aligns with their exceptional speed and agility, effectively leveraging their strengths to outmaneuver opponents.

Cultivating a Stoic, process-oriented mindset is undoubtedly a challenging endeavor. It begins with acknowledging that learning from both victories and setbacks demands a level of introspection that can be difficult. Embracing thoughtfulness, carefully analyzing every move, might require stepping out of your comfort zone. Pouring intense effort into refining your skills, even when faced with obstacles, is a journey that demands resilience. Lastly, allowing strategy to guide you, illuminating your path with wisdom, requires navigating the intricacies of decision-making. This journey towards constant growth and achievement is undoubtedly tough, yet profoundly rewarding.

Breaking Free from Outcome Bias

Ultimately, to break free from having an outcome bias, you will need three key practices to guide your path:

1. Reflection and Evaluation: Regularly assess your decisions and actions, irrespective of their outcomes. Make it a practice to ask yourself what you did well and how you can make improvements. Separate the assessment of your process from the judgment of the result.
2. Embrace Failure as Learning: Instead of viewing failure as a setback, see it as an opportunity to learn and grow. Analyze what went wrong, identify areas for improvement, and adjust your approach accordingly.
3. Set Process-Oriented Goals: While it’s natural to aspire to win, commit to setting goals that focus on the processes and strategies you’ll employ to achieve success. Goals like sets and reps, routine streaks, personal best, and mastery of techniques that are part of a larger strategic purpose. This commitment ensures that you stay dedicated to continuous improvement instead of fixating solely on outcomes.

Breaking free from having an outcome bias is an essential step toward becoming a more effective decision-maker, athlete, and individual. By adopting a process-oriented mindset rooted in Stoic principles, you can detach your self-worth from external outcomes and instead focus on actions, efforts, and strategies that lead to those outcomes. Remember, success doesn’t solely stem from the outcome, it’s also a product of the journey you take to get there. So, let go of outcome bias, embrace the power of process, and watch yourself flourish both on and off the field, court, or mat.